Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
mirror image of breakaway gap - strong trend changer
if occured tomorrow morning Sep 1, this downtrend is likely finished. and i see the uptrend could last for quite a while, i predict we won't see spx 1040 for the next 6 months. need to have the breakaway gap for this assumption.
don't just count 12345abc daily, strategy the whole picture. there are lots clear signs already. be a strategist, not a technician.
ps. when i came back from the vacation on Aug 9, just in time to witness & chart the termination of spx 1129.24 top.
now i see the most important trend changer for the next 6 months - generally up cycle & won't visit spx 1040, let's see how is the assessment. hope it won't die tomorrow, lol.
TJ, i consider many assets, like treasury bonds, usd, currencies, international markets to see the big picture, so my mind won't be confined to a small corner just caring the daily up & down. i have iso lines and cycles there as an important guideline for the major trends. i also have some systems to guide. i try to see at least a few months ahead and how they matching short term, medium term and long term. and try to see if there anything not conform to each other. i see strategy is the most important, like playing chess, i always like to plan a few steps ahead.
let's review mid Sept to see how it react to another iso line, and how its velocity getting there. i see it should get to the next up iso line. even if it's a great depression play, it still needs to get there for the patterns. i had those ready for quite a while. remember i mentioned plan A? that's the depression play. But recently i see some big picture changed in diferent assets, so here comes the plan C.
currently my cycle work showing the unfinished business (higher than 1220) of bear rally would end late March, 2011, then we have very strong down real bear market plunges going forward. $USD cycle should down into mid Jan, 2011. i have the roadmap, inflection cycles all planned. will trade long & short accordingly.
Gooner, your working on currencies is a good direction. i see it as a leading indicator, also give you the bigger picture of where the stock market is going. treasury bonds is another piece of puzzle. all these need to put together and correlated with cycles for a better understanding of the equity market.
Phil, indeed an amazing morning. but could be seen, couldn't it? all the signs were there, it didn't went because it's waiting for the CYCLE turn!!! again, time leads price. Same happened to Aug 9 if you check my previous posts. always work on time cycle!