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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Friday, September 17, 2010

cared participants of this poll (& on email list) will receive more short term & big picture Crash analysis. Poll:




1). very early October crash (Oct 1 & 4) - humblestudent stays with this prediction, issued on Sep 4(Saturday) while spx was at 1105.

2). early Oct crash (Oct 5 ~ 8)
3). mid Oct crash (Oct 11 ~ 15)
4). Crash Oct 18 ~ 22
5). Crash Oct 25 ~29
6). No crash, only a little weakness into end of Oct.
7). No crash, more upside into end of Oct.
8). No crash, extreme weakness take out spx 1040 or 1010 by end of October.
8). No crash, sideway October.

crash evaluation:
price:
today's 1131.47, a marginal new high than 6/21's 1131.23 is perfect, and make even higher probability of the coming potential crash.
this new high completes the expanding pattern, and expanding is crash pattern.

time:
if today is the top, will be 10th day away from from my projected Oct 1 crash, or 11th day away from Oct 4 crash.
my study shows a crash only occurs 10th +-2 days after the top is made. so today's new high timing make the crash timing even more probable.

all 6 setup conditions of the crash system never changed and are always valid since i issued the crash prediction on Saturday Sep 4.

the wild card: fomc on next tuesday 9/21.
if a new high, price still is an expanding crash pattern. timing would be 8th & 9th day from Oct 1 & Oct 4. still a perfect pattern and cycle crash setup.

if today is the top, the earliest possible crash day is Sep 29, the latest possible crash day is Oct 5.

as for my prediction of 9/16 +-1 as cycle top, not a critical element to the crash. near 4 weeks ago i said 9/15. one week ago, i revised to 9/16. i guess 9/16+-1 is good enough for the cycle calculation.

above are the reasons i keep on saying crash progress well, and keep faith in the prediction of the decade due to the scale.

please remember, if after 12th day off the top, and no crash. then the crash must be called off. instead would be extreme weakness or extreme strength, depends on the cycle and technicals setup at the point. that's what happened to 8/31, 7/1, 2/5/2010 strong rally, i must accept and understand this do or die crash system setup.

all above are my own observations and analysis, don't think you can find them in any book or any place.