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Thursday, September 16, 2010

AAII Bull/Bear Index: 50.9 percent of respondents are bullish, a 52-week high - This extreme contrarian could mean most bearish market coming.

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Published: Thursday, 16 Sep 2010 | 10:32 AM ET
By: Bob Pisani
CNBC Reporter
Bull/Bear Index Shows Huge Investor Confusion
You think you're clueless? Are stocks undervalued? Overbought? Who knows? The S&P 500 is up 7.2 percent this month, a great start, but volume is positively horrible (NYSE consolidated volume is 30 percent below the same period for September of last year) and because no one is particularly sure about the value of earnings estimates, no one is quite sure what to make of this.

Retail investors are thoroughly confused — just look at the weekly American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear Index: 50.9 percent of respondents are bullish, a 52-week high. But 3 weeks ago, only about 20 percent were bullish — a 52-week LOW. Huh?

No real reaction from S&P futures before Thursday's open as initial and continuing jobless claims were both a tad below expectations, headline PPI a bit stronger than expected.