due to the pattern of kbe & kre, the same pattern i spotted apr 26's T2, market could have topped already yesterday 9/14. that would mean probabilty of the red pill scenario would decrease substantially. yes, two days does make that much difference, bears need to know what they are wishing for the top. if it's blue pill, very bad for the country. i said red pill is good for the country, i do mean it.
rant(you can skip the following):
as posted on 9/14's chart. red pill is 1987 great crash style, the pain is great but is only one time short pain. then the market, economic start to climb out of the hole, and the worst of both are done by end of 2010.
but for blue pill,
1). it could be y2k style, stock market down at least 50% from here in two years. economic might not come back unless there is another bubble to start another bad market & economic cycle.
2). it could the japanese style, after double decades, both nikkei & economic still hanging at lower one third for decades and never come back. japanese have lots savings to live through the multi-decades great deflation. do we?
3). great depression style. under GDI, $DJI down 80% in two years from the recovery T2 high. then took 25 years to back to the recovery high. then WWII saved, pulled the stock market & economic out of the hole. this is very bad for the country and everyone (no matter bulls or bears) for multi-decades. and could never come back unless there is a miracle. GDI has WWII to save. what would GDII have to save? hyperinflation? that would be even much worse than GDII. WWIII? that's the worst with millions of millions of people die under modern weapon, and could be people you know.
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