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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Probability, imho: Code Blue 49.99%; Code red 49.98%; new bull ~0.01%

preferred 9/29 as cycle top for a 100% match of the top model of code blue(not necessary though).
probably through some whipsaws.

following is one of the historical code blue blueprints.
explanation of the code blue / code red system, and expectation.
code red is once in a decade type incidence.
even have a slightly chance in the coming Oct means a great deal in historical standard!

stock market in great depression II for the next 25 years? Nikkei can, why can't U.S.? Nasdaq index already floating in bottom 1/3 depression for the last 10 years and never recovered.

one of the code blue blueprint matching the ew relativity and pattern.

you reluctant to swallow the red pill, so code blue probability rising sharply, in terms of its cycle, pattern, ew relativity...
it's bad for the country, bad for everybody.

code red still has chance, reviewing.

PS. 2). i see we could have potential to get into GDII for the next 25 years! probably it's the grand economic cycle. when a ballon is too full, it needs to shrink to the proper state, or it will pop. code red is to release the excessive air faster. code blue is to slowly endure the pain of gradually releasing the excessive air. what if you have qe2, qe3 ...? you know, what would happen to adding more air to an already full ballon. even you try to act as god to refill all the air, the excessive air still need to let go, otherwise, the hiper-inflated ballon will hyper-fly high away in the sky and disappeared, then it's all over!
it has been 20 years for Nikkei coming down from 38K, and floating in the lower 1/3 zone for decades. that's the same situation of GDI. now we are following japan's steps from 20 years ago - housing bubble bursted, massive stimulus (japan already had qe1, qe2, qe3, qe(n), and still), zero interest rates...and U.S. has much massive debts. i think and see there could be one potential ultimate solution, but let's decide to either take blue or red pill first.

3). Jay Lin, that 2nd code blue fractal is only the 2nd best one. the best one(noy posted) is so strikingly close in price pattern, cycle...
4). yesterday(9/25) e-sent, saying might still have ... unfinished business for the top code blue model for 100% match. looks like that's the case, from the Sunday night futures. if certain time, technicals system setup(not yet) invalidate code blue, then above content described scenario #3 must apply.

5). if today's marginal new high is the top, then imho, code red is gaining points in the probability. if market whipsaws drifting into 9/29 with marginal higher, imho, then code blue is more likely.

regarding the QE2 survey cnbx did. first of all, there are no official announcement of any kind, and likely will never be. just like fed governors keep on talking exit strategy and cut balance sheet, but never come realized, just cheap talks.
1). we all know the role of cnbx is to pump stock market, that means the survery cnbx did is questionable. 2). those economists, strategists and fund managers participated in the survey are selected by cnbx. i suspect majority of them holding long position of stocks and have confict of interests and wishfully responded in their favor. 3). those economists, strategists and fund managers often mostly were wrong regarding the economic direction and views. so how good are their opinions? 4). durning the last many months (i believe since Jan 2010), fed kept on talking exit strategy, cutting their balance sheet. now they want to do a 180 degree turn to increase substancial of the balance sheet? i think it's just obscured bluffing game. their words of changing things in a complete different direction is without merit, and nor creditable. that also means fed's view of the economy and assets are complete
wrong and don't know hat's going, and are forced to different measure. if so, they will be forced to different measures again and again as fire fighter. 5). i think fed's hands are tied and they are cornered among the stones. they are just trying to use hope talks to delay the inevitable, and i believe it won't work. 6). if they want to do it, why wait till Nov or next year? why not right away if economic weakness really is so much serious. or they just wait and see to see if cheap talks pychlogical game would do the job. i think they can not afford to pull the trigger, and they probably are out of ammo. 7). currently the inflation in many commodities are very high. it could trigger hyper-inflation danger if they pull the trigger, and it will be a direction no return route. i think hyper-inflation is much more danger than deflation.
8), even if they really do it. take Japan as an example. after 20 years, Nikkei still 75% below its 38K top on 1990. mission unsuccessful. they know it.