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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Status of early October crash - progressing intact

it was my under-estimate mistake of the recovery top of the crash. maybe because i "want" it be lower, so i igored it. but de facto is it 'needs' to get there.
this de facto of 61.8% retrace is 1140+- for the crash setup.
same retraces hold true for the 1987 Oct great crash and the 2010 May flash crash.

my top cycle estimation of Sep 16+-1 so far streched to two days further.
but this top cycle estimation (issued over 3 weeks ago) is independent from the Crash projection.
my original issued upside target on Aug 25 for spx looks to be correct, just abandoned too soon due to larger bearish/crash pattern behind.
here i am not going to pre-maturally give up my crash projection under the threat of "an algorithmic stampede of short-covering.”

on Aug 25 (was at 1040), i told people 1130~1140 was coming, they did not believe. now people don't believe again. AAII sentiment is like that, bearish at bottom, bullish at top. we need to do the opposite, not following the crowd!
people say i am wrong when spx "break out" 10 points. but what here the crash business we are looking for is a couple hundred spx points down. does that 10 points matters so much?

more and charts(ready) later.