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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Deleveraging



<< Joeseph said...
Humble,
You are silent these days, any reason?
We can not get enough of your charts and great t/a ;)
October 30, 2010 4:55 PM >>

well, 10 years ago around this time frame, i was at JNPR message board deleveraging JNPR while it was at ATH $244.5. Two years later, it was as low as $4.15 after deleveraged, grand crashed 98.3%. A few months later after JNPR Topped, i was hosting a FED prediction game at JNPR message board a couple days prior to an important FOMC.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Qe2EUehGkjM/TM0Yf2tozJI/AAAAAAAABJA/n_0JU7c592k/s1600/0131+jnpr+message+board+2001+I.JPG
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Qe2EUehGkjM/TM0Yfuy6ZII/AAAAAAAABI4/xulAKh4-6no/s1600/0131+jnpr+message+board+2001+II.JPG

Joseph, here we are again, a couple days prior to an important FOMC. One reason i am a bit quiet not making major posts is:

i believe i am currently holding the best and most important key of the market at hand - elliott wave, that's the most important pattern and structure of this market since the market bottom in Mar 6, 2009. i know i got the best elliott wave structure and counts correctly. i just got it the last 2 weeks. i know it probably is the best one in the t/a world (i am not kidding, even though not humble at all). i see ew counts everywhere in all other blogs and subscription services are not convincing, no matter bullish 1-2-1-2 or bearish 1-2-1-2 or other structures.
most subscriptions i know, people pay quite some fees, and couldn't get it right in all different alternate counts. i am struggling if i should share it. that's the only best thing i am considering. the remaining patterns just secondary.
i knew this undisputable structure and counts for the last 2 weeks already, today i just finalized the squiggle details.
i really regard i am holding the best ew key in the t/a world, and probably the only few person in the t/a world figure out(but i don't see others presenting it), i see all elliott wavers suffered more than 1.5 years and couldn't figure out(both bullish and bearish). It's just a matter should i share or not. and what would be good for me to share such a most important key of the market that every elliott wavers dream of.

as i sensed especially at this juncture the importance of elliott wave about 2 weeks ago, i posted the elliott wave survey, and soliciting people posting their elliott wave reading twice in the past 2 weeks. i got nearly zero result. those people post some links don't count because they say they don't use elliott wave. 5 people on the survey say they see ew working most of the time. off 39 votes, only 7 people don't use elliott wave. where are the voice and counts of the 32 using ew and the best 5? they don't share any bit, why should i share the biggest secret of the t/a world for their free rides? even though i am very disappointed with people viewing this blog, but i am still considering to be generous. i am quite certain this is the indisputable elliott wave counts that i just got it 2 weeks ago. i was already quite experienced with elliott wave over 10 years ago when i was contributing on the JNPR message board. these last 10 years, i still work on elliott wave day and night on a daily basis, and get quite much more on this knowledge.



PS. 1). Code red style Grand Crash likely postponed ....(will explain in the email the timing and what to expect) but it still be at least Code blue style grand crash at least 80% over the time. during 1930 great depression, it took 2 years to accomplish the code blue style grand crash of 86%.
2). i was wrong also for the overall elliott wave counts in the past, but at least i confidently clarify this issue 2 weeks ago that constantly bothered everyone in the elliott wave t/a world. i see currently even several professional subscription services still very wrong at this moment. even the renowned elliott wave master prechter(you and i all read and learn from his book about ew) has been wrong for his P3 call for exactly one year, so yo uknow how difficult is this task. even though i was wrong about the ew structure, but at least i was very bullish during late Aug and gave spx 1150 target price, while majority blogs and subscriptions were calling killer wave 3 of 3 down. now i checked around 20 elliott wave related blogs and subscriptions, i see none of them have convincing elliott wave structure and counts of overall rally since 3/6/2009. most of them are copying each others general idea of 1-2-1-2 either up or down. we need to think outside of the box that tie everyone inside for so long. if you buy as i did at spx 1040, and sell at my terget price 1150. you still doing fine with friday's closing price at 1183. the current 33 points difference can be taking care of in 2~3 days sell off.
3). Grand, thank you. you are the first person willing to share the elliott wave counts here. i will likely get back to you later either publicly or privately. i don't mind people post super bullish or bearish counts here, as long as with a good presentation.