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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Monday, October 11, 2010

vix down over 8% today - a hot topic. imho, the real reason behind this vix crash is to "meet the same expanding requirements as of Apr's T2".

1). first, the vix triangle a-b-c-d-e X-wave i posted during market hour.
2). the LT & MT vix iso line i posted on the same chart.
3). the real most important reason is vix & spx, also vxn & ndx must play as pairs. today we sacrifice the volatility index vix & vxn to get to the expanding triangle target iso line EXACTLY. if not sacrificing vix, then spx must go much higher to satisfy the expanding structure. but since spx and all major indexes are all at iso lines, not probable to go much higher w/o damage the bear structure.
if the iso lines are violated in a big way, then it's no more bear and market must go pass above T2, which i don't see it has any chance. new high? it's Jack's America dream, sank in the middle of Atlatic on 14 April 1912. 1517 out of 2227 into the bottom of the ocean and never rise, that's 68% victims.
Grand Crash should have that much 68% of bulls must go broke, in my very HUMBLE opinion!
that's the market structure as a whole. it did at Apr's T2 top, did it again here for the expanding nature!

often this kind of move is to meet the time/cycle requirement. it's compensating the missing in price to meet the time, dramatic move to quickly satisfy the beast!
to me, all indexes, including many internationals, including this vix are just confined by the iso line, even though moving up slightly each day, still perfectly controlled by the iso lines.

PS. 1). Grand crash is once in a century (greater than once in a life time) event, i suggest people don't bet on it. what's the probability you think of this once a century event would occur here?
that's for you. and i don't suggest you have this kind of anticipation no matter what i say or others say.
For me, i insist until it get invalidated because i see what i see, and believe what i see. if you don't see what i see, don't believe it, don't dream for it.
2). Today we hit a new high by franctional. i should say crash wndow postpone by another day to Oct 22. But i say no this time. because during the last few days, i realize this is the Grand Crash, it's timing is all different from all other crashes. i kind of have an idea how the timing structure play out and have a model, but i think the less people know, the better it will be.
3). btw, today is a very meanful day in timing for the Grand Crash scenario.