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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Balancing the QE1, QE2 with $SPX



this chart was prepared on Nov 5, 2010 with $spx P2 Top of 1227.08.
i was not so willing to post it as i spent so many hours on it. now, 25 days later, i publish it. i believe still in a timely manner, not too far from P2 Top, and many many or majority blogs, services are still looking for higher Wave 5.
if you have seen my special comprehensive report issued the past weekend, i am confident people will not look for higher Wave 5 anymore, there are certian technicals are must not, will not, should not, and can not. now i find a way to share these special my top charts - private membership (described on above link). i have lots charts and analysis never published, even though i believe i already shared more than enough than most places for the last 8 months.

The following account balance shows QE2 either is already factored in, or already spent! during the late Aug, whole September, October time frame, the sentiment is not good, not many people willing to buy stocks. if very few bought stocks, then who bought it to cause the market rising almost everyday? i believe FED already spent the $600 billion QE2 money, they are empty and can not admit. Any event from the EuroZone or something else will be hard for the FED to save. dare the FED issue QE3? i do not want to bet on it, do you?

last few days i also found the whole world is connected in some way, all those internationals i checked already up to the neck and started to throw up. Not coincidently, the whole world is on the same life boat. Titanic already sank during 2008, now all are on the life boat. and i do not think the helicopter will make it. all imho. i think Pelican said blackhawk down or blackswan. aren't them yield the same kind of results?

On Nov 5, 2010, i posted:
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6). jxxd asked: "I'm wondering is there is correlation between the market capitalization of the sp500 and the amount of QE and movement in SPX the last 2 years."

“Bernanke Put”:
Yes, there is, i have spent many hours yesterday went through FED documents, announcements, and came up with a correlation chart with spx, it's a facinating chart. i found out the $600 billion QE2 effect should correlate to spx 1219.54. i am missing about 7 spx points somewhere in the FED accounting book, still trying to find out where is the money for the 7 points. retail buyers? short squeeze? overshoot? one FED instalment i missed?
in the mean time, the FOMC statement on Aug 5, 2008 right before the 2008 autumn financial storm showing "FED knows nothing". and later their response was very late and calculated amount was wrong, then ajdusted later. also their injection timing kept on changing. On Apr 28, 2010 FOMC, they closed all QE1, claimed victory, there comes the flash crash to greet their "victory". now the $600B has achieve the goal(claiming victory?). i expect the market will respond with grand crash, fade the FED in a biggest way, a perfect storm of “Bernanke Put” .
i think FED is quite ignorant, reckless, not knowing what's going on, missing again and again...what else description can you use?
Aug 5, 2008 FOMC statement (partial):
<<
Aug 5, 2008 FOMC statement:
Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. ... Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. >>
That was the statement right before the financial storm.
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PS. 1). TJ, thanks. those real time trades i showed members are all according the "plan". as i showed members the charts, planned yesterday @close, also planned this morning & verified. all at the exact point. next entry also planned as on the chart i showed members. TJ, this morning exact planned trade, might already saved you whole year's membership fees. :)