Blog Archive


Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

nothing decisive in 12 days

12/30: emerging markets EEM. humble just updated members with a great setup for LT and ST. emerging markets bottomed on 11/21/2008, leading the world market up. now is the opposite. many readers on the blog are from emerging markets. humble noticed, there is zero reader from China.

spx got the bearish island reversal as mentioned yesterday but pulled back up, it's a very small range and still on the support, no decisive move yet.
for the last 12 trading days, even though it looks like rally everyday, but $spx only "rallied" 16 points from 12/13's high of 1246 to yesterday's high of 1262. 12 days gain of 16 points can easily erased in a matter of one day in regular trading day. it's not that mush as most people "feel". and the bullish sentiment is turning above 60%, 3rd time in 10 years per cnbc. last two time above 60% was 3/2000 & 10/2007, we know what happened after those time. during these 12 days, hmble see bullish people turning even more bullish and "felt" cocky and want to buy more, lots analysts raised their target prices. lots bears "felt" terrible and capitulating on these 16 points advance in 12 days.
NYSE 10 day averaged volume is the second lowest in 10 years. probably "boring" into new year 2011.

on the other hand, Lowry's is one of the biggest bull in last decade, even their #1 oldest experienced analysis is "expecting a fairly stiff correction of 10%", that would be spx 1135.

that 1135 is from the biggest most #1 bullish bull!
let's get there first before the next step.
wouldn't lots bears be appreciated if spx is at 1135 today? that's 125 spx lower than today's!
humble was bullish at 1170's and bought long twice late Nov at 1170's, those records were pubished and available.
humble has a much different read than the most bullish bull(ironically, Lowry's operated since 1930 GDI just before the 86% crash. will their record repeat? :)), one step at a time!!!
Y1930's GDI did not get 86% crash in three month, it took two years and 3 months' code blue!!! and took 25 years to recover.
even nasdaq 100 $ndx took two years to crash 84%, and only rcovered fibo 38% after nearly 10 years.