Jan 18 market close update: 5 charts on micro, St and MT.
special close update: $indu needs to come down soon, otherwise coming broad bearish market scenario could be in danger, because ...
compare and look at the system GD charts above.
short term, medium term time frames analysis of AAPL available.
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humblestudent echen membership Jan 16, 2011 weekend report (charts and more for paid private members, applications open)
Total 30 charts covering $spx, $indu, $ndx, $rut, $djusfn, $nyad, volume, job chart, QE2 600 billion chart analysis. Analysis time frames of long term, intermediate term, medium term, short term, micro term.
· Both $indu and $spx are in the one decade resistance zone.
· There are some similarity of $spx price and FED released statements between Aug 5, 2008 and Jan 11, 2011:
<< FOMC Release Date: August 5, 2008
Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports.
Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. >>
<< Jan 11. 2011 released the minutes of its discount rate meetings on November 22 and December 13, 2010.
indicated the recovery was continuing, expected growth to be modest going forward. said manufacturing activity had continued to expand.
noted increases in certain commodity prices, such as those for metals
and agricultural products, but they generally expected inflation to remain quite low. >>
There are inflation concerns of oil, metals, agricultural products during both Aug 2008 and Jan 2011 period.
“Economic activity expanded, reflecting growth” during Aug 2008, according to FED.
“the recovery was continuing, expected growth to be modest going forward. manufacturing activity had continued to expand.” during Jan 2011, according to FED.
During Aug 2008, it took only 20 days (Fibonacci 21 less one day) for $spx to rally from 1200 to 1313.
Currently it took 34 Fibonacci days for $spx to rally from 1173 to 1293. Comparably, current rally took 1.7 more time to achieve the same amount of $spx point rally. Current rally since Nov 30 is weaker than the pre-financial-storm during fall of 2008 in terms of velocity.
After the FED released the statement on Aug 5, 2008, $spx topped 4 trading day later.
Friday Jan 14 is the third trading day after the FED released the statement on Jan 11, 2011.
The timing after the FED statements is similar.
After $spx topped 1313 on Aug 11, 2008, it still whipsawed a few times between 1260 and 1300 for the next three trading weeks. From Aug 11, 2008 top, $spx plunged 572 points in 3 months and 10 days.
· $spx is right around the 30 years Fibonacci fan line resistance. On this same line, previous top hitting point was Apr 26, 2010 top. On the Fibonacci line above shows the all time high resistance 1576 in Oct 2007. On the Fibonacci line below shows the support at Mar 2009 bottom. $spx is right around historical important resistance with Fibonacci fan.
· $spx is right around the 30 years pitch fork line resistance. On this same line, previous top hitting point was Apr 26, 2010 top.
From FED Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen’s speech;
<< Figure 3 depicts the results of such a simulation exercise, as reported in a recent research paper by four Federal Reserve System economists.8 For illustrative purposes, the simulation imposes the assumption that the purchases of $600 billion in longer-term Treasury securities are completed within about a year, that the elevated level of securities holdings is then maintained for about two years, and that the asset position is then unwound linearly over the following five years.9
“As shown in the table, the initiation of the securities purchase program at the November FOMC meeting occasioned only minimal market response. The reason is that it was largely anticipated by investors, having been the subject of extensive public discussions by Federal Reserve officials during late summer and early autumn. Importantly, as expectations of the program gradually became embedded in asset prices during late summer and early autumn, >>
As seen on the above Figure 3, the purchases of $600 billion in longer-term Treasury securities is on a nearly 90 degree slope, which agrees with the sharp rise of $spx during the past months.
Following is the enlarge of the left portion of above Figure 3.
Humble dissects the time of purchase of $600 billion, comes up with the following chart.
It seems like the sharp rise has come to the plateau right around Jan 14, 2011 with the starting time of $spx Nov 29, 2011 low of 1173. $spx closed right on a 2 and half years high at the plateau entry point.
· Following weekly Initial Jobless Claims chart is highly correlated to $spx and $indu, It shows a sharp turn right at the green and blue trend lines. Could potentially indicating jobless claims improving situation turned right at its climax. Could it be also due to the $600 billion purchase climax of reaching the plateau?
Following charts show the inverse correlation of $spx and weekly initial jobless claims, with the help of Elliott wave notations.
Following depicts the overall Elliott wave structure since the market bottom on Mar 6, 2009. This triangle of a triangle 9-wave structure Elliott wave form also is the same as year 1930’s overall rally into Apr 16, 1930’s great depression.
· Last Friday Jan 14, 2011, $spx closed right on the regression channel resistance.
· Following shows $spx and $indu pitch forks from Nov bottom with two levels. Blue pitch fork is refined with the green pitch fork for the final development. It seems like both $spx and $indu both are around the top line resistances.
· Following chart shows NYSE advances-declines issues $NYAD is right around the decade Fibonacci fan and trend line resistances, which agrees with previous 30 years $spx Fibonacci fan line resistance.
· Following charts show negative divergence of rising $spx price with declining Nasdaq total volume.
· Around 38.2% retrace often is the limit of wave-B or wave-4. Both $NDX and $DJUSFN show this characteristics.
· Two levels of broadening top:
· $spx 5th extension of a 5th extension:
· Or preferably to be labeled as the last leg of 9-wave triangle, each of the 9-wave consists of 3 waves of a-b-c.
· Red lines show the Fibonacci fan resistance, pink lines show the Fibonacci time target. Both hit around the market close on Jan 14, 2011.
Jan 18, $indu upside magnet;
Jan 18 intraday market updates (10 morning updates text samples, charts and more for private members only)
Dear humble members,
9:38am ET spx is at the upper pitch fork line resistance.
9:54am in the weekend report:
<< After the FED released the statement on Aug 5, 2008, $spx topped 4 trading day later.
Friday Jan 14 is the third trading day after the FED released the statement on Jan 11, 2011.
The timing after the FED statements is similar.>>
today is the 4th trading day after the FED statement on Jan 11. spx made a new fractional new high. if today is the top, then it's the same 4th day timing as Aug 11, 2008. but during Aug 2008, spx still whipsaws in a small range (no new high, range 1260's~1300's) for three weeks, then took a dive of 572 points.
10:06am on the micro term,
watch the mid and lower green pitch fork supports.
as a first step, need to go below the mid green line.
if breaks down the lower green line, potentially open stronger down side.
on the other hand, if stays above the upper green line and does not come down, could be a sign of more upside.
10:28am in micro term, seems like a broadening top (pink lines).
fear factor is in the neutral range, could be a factor to prevent the market from stronger down at this moment, need time to relieve toward the complacency level.
10:38am early morning market strength is at $indu.
probably is because $indu needs to reach the magnet of pitch fork, fibo fan, and channel upper resistance and target. once $indu reversed, could potentially bring down the market with it.
11:32am $indu upside magnet update.
12:08 pm spx MT 9 wave triangle is at the fibo fan top green line resistance and slowly climb along for wave v-C-E. if get over the upper fan line, could signal more upside. ST, need to get to the mid green fan line first for bearish case.
12:16pm 30-year treasury yield rejected at MT red resistance. it's indicating inflation, has been up with the stock market since the Aug 2010 bottom. retreating here is an early sign of coming market retreat. if the yield climb above the red resistance, could mean interest rate is out of control, and potentially in a very high infaltionary status.
12:42pm financials $djusfn is leading down, currently struggling at the fibo fan and quadrant line. fear factor is much relieved toward the complacency level. ST TICK is at the semi-overbot level. however, ST Nasdaq TICK is at the most oversold territory. AAPL reports earning AH, could the oversold Nasdaq indicating AAPL potentially has unfinished upside business? $ndx 2330 is 38.2% magnet from all time high in Y2K.
12:53pm spx seems like working on the 3rd level smaller broadening top in a more rounding fashion. its notion is more like an extension of an extension wave, which should be in the terminating stage.
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