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The storm neckline pattern rhythms well with year 1930 great depression.
Initial Jobless claims is a leading indicator, highly correlated to $spx and $indu. The following data pattern has a same pattern as above $spx big picture of A-B-C-D-E Elliott wave. It has slightly broke above the big trend line from March 2009 when $spx was bottomed. Jobless claims with 4-week moving average also shows a break out pattern.
Big picture fear factor $CPC broke out, it's first in nearly 8 months, the pattern level is high, much higher than Apr 26, 2010's top.
At regression channel top.
Following shows the same expanding triangle ending diagonal Elliott wave pattern as of Apr 26, 2010’s.
Fear factor was a concern yesterday, now has not only relieved, but also come to an extreme complacency level, favor extreme plunge coming. Previous less complacency level on Jan 19 yielded about 25 spx point’s plunge.
Touched the upper trend line then retreat.
Following chart shows $spx has been fluctuating about 4 point up and down the FOMC line. Late day back tested to make half a point new high of the day. To accomplish this task, MSFT earning was “leaked” to pre-release to surge to the target. Then both $spx and MSFT retreated immediately to the nothing happened level. The target price was the upper trend line touch of the above chart.
$rut back tested the mid line of the blue pitch fork.
Both $ndx and $comp climbed along the back test line to a double top on the 55th Fibonacci day from the Nov 9, 2010 high.
Financials $djusfn seems like making a right shoulder of the potential bearish head and shoulders pattern. $djusfn could already make the top on Jan 18, which is 7 trading days ago. Financials often lead the market.
Just an FYI of the expanding triangle pattern. AMZN plunged about 20 points after hour with earning release. The pattern of expanding triangle with similar wave counts also occurred to JNPR during year 2000~2001 internet bubble. It took about two years for JNPR to crash from $244 to below $5.
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