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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

primary (greater than major) on the card

if yesterday's 38.2% retrace is wave-iv, wave-v upside target could be the upper green line.
fear factor has excessive fears. it won't get to the complacency zone rightaway, takes time to be relieved. TICK is oversold.

$rut likely not topped yet, "bull bus" cycle is not full yet. time, time, time. cycle, cyle, cycle. the most important element that most people ignore.

LT fear factor cycle is not yet.

humble is no bull, just trading the market based on humble patterns, indicators and etc...

PS. 2/16: out of the gate, $spx already made a new high near the upper green line. But short term fear factor is indicating still have excessive fears, need time to be relieved.

2/16 1050ET: previous upper green line got surpassed at 1337's. the upper blue pitch fork line could be a target.
fear factor only relieved about one third.
11:20ET: the upside target or resistance could also be the next upper line of the brown Fibonacci fan, or the upper line of the blue pitch fork. They are a function of time, the sooner it gets there, the lower the price. prolonged time would make the price higher as fear factor only relieved about one third.
if $rut passes above 829's, this would not be just wave-v, and could be ...
12:45ET: something primary (greater than major) could be on the card "soon", as humble analyzing the structure of $spx, and decades assets ratio function, and economic data highly correlation, and cycles, and $600 billion correlated effect on the market, and treasury bonds, and treasury yields... putting all together, they all aligned well and highly correlated.
14:10ET humble already took sso profits earlier as target reached.
15:00ET market could reach a new high near the close or tomorrow morning. the pull back earlier likely was only the b-wave of the wave-v up. similar situaion for $spx and $rut. $spx earlier pull back was at 61.8% of yesterday's wave-iv low, a typical wave-b of expanding triangle ed price.
another reason is fear factor only relieved 2/3.