3/21 after market close: i see potential bearish alternation on $spx, $indu, $rut as many technical reasons updated to members, and will research more and update to members. will keep high alert on this potential.
currently keep the $spx 1425 target unless see otherwise.
position adjustment to members according to the "flow".
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09:20am ET $spx future open indication right around 1294.
if above 1294.26 blue resistance line, there will be an overlapping for people's bearish count of 1-2-3 and would be invalidated. $rut and $djusfn already achieved the same purpose on last Friday.
the next blue line level of resistance is 1302+-.
looking forward to three-white-soldiers bullish reversal candlestick pattern.
09:47am shortly after market open, $spx already above the 1394.26 resistance to invalidate bearish elliott wave count that people have.
the invalidation of bearish ew count could have a huge implications. during the weekend, i placed the $spx 1249 bottom as wave 4, but that might not be the case. because a wave 4 often retrace 38.2% of the distance of wave 2 and wave 3, but this retracement is around 61.8% for major indexes, which is wave 2 characteristics. there are two huge implications for this market structure change. one option is this market is not bear market rally anymore, but i also see another option rhythm with great depreesion 1 structure even though probability is not that high. i plan to detail all these on the next weekend report after geting more data from this week's trading.
10:01am $spx slightly pulled back from the green middle Fibo fan line, also not far from the second blue line resistance around 1302+-.
second chart shows $spx is near the upper red trend line (alos an extension of the red pitch fork) resistance. if staying above this red line resistance, the probability to pass beyound would increase greatly.
previous update fear factor still indicate near the fear zone, which provide more potential upside for the market.
10:06am $rut is close to the brown Fibo fan, red pitch fork, purple 144 period moving average resistances. should provide a short term resistances for $rut.
10:09am $indu is right at the brown Fibo fan and purple 144 period moving average resistances, should be a good resistance for the very short term,
10:17am the broken lower blue pitch fork line could provide a good resistance for both $rut and tna.
if coming back and stay inside the pitch fork would greatly increase the probability of $rut making a new high above Feb 18's 838.
10:37am morning rally right at the $spx Super Cycle Trend Line.
10:37am cpci cpce ratio indicates the market still at "very" bottom territory even with 3 days' strong rally. this agrees with the (weekend report of) AAII sentiment analysis of major bottom and previous mentioned wave 2 (not wave 4) characteristics.
i would be very careful to trade or hold any short poition as so much evidences have presented of the potential huge upside.
10:48am financials, often a leading sector, is seriously underperformed today, could indicate a market pull back is coming, unless $djusfn catch up the market rally pace.
10:56am for the micro term, both $spx and $indu should not stay above the pitch fork or Fibo fan resistances without a consolidation or correction. the relative weakness of $djusfn could be a clue. but the broad picture of potential more medium term upside is intact.
11:09am $rut is trading above the Simulated Super Cycle Trend Line.
$rut does not trade back in year 1930's. it started trading in year 1991. i use the data as far as back to do a Simulated Super Cycle Trend Line for $rut.
11:18am (fear factor) it's leaving the neutral zone and approaching toward the complacency zone, but still have much room toward it,could be as a function of price or time, as previous updates indicating market resistances are right around here.
13th update of the day.
12:02pm ET so far, the strength and velocity of $rut off 775.90 bottom rhythm well with the bottom of Jan 31's 774.85.
the analysis updated on 3/15 and 3/17 of $rut corrective "plunge" from Feb 18 was correct.
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