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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

oil and leveraged ETFs performaces (TZA, UPRO, ERX) roadmap on N. Africa unrest

under the N. Africa unrest and oil spike,
1). ERX, Energy ETF, is the best performer in Feb, +26%.
2). TZA, Small Cap Bear ETF, -15%, is the worst performer in Feb and not far from its all time low, probably also is the worst ETF performer in all time span. trading it is fine, but why holding the worst performer for long term or medium term? worst performer even under this kind of turmoils. what if there is no turmoil? numbers speak, Yikes. But even if a person is deeply underwater of holding TZA, there still are ways to break even or even gain.

buy the market when there is a bullish cross of ($spx, oil).
sell the market when there is a bearish cross of ($spx, oil).
buy/sell opportunity when there is a large (or medium) air pocket in ($spx, oil).

in the past 2 weeks, almost every other day, one day is a large bull trap, the next is a large bear trap.
on 3/3, humble posted the coming trading day on 3/4 will be the largest bull trap in 2 years. it was true with $spx plunged 18 points during the intraday. now humble retreat the "2 years" wording. it was a bull trap, but not so big.

next, humble sees bears do not have much time left(ST). maybe 1~2 more chances if not already passed. pressure is on bears even if market down on Monday Mar 7.
after analysis, also retrieve the statement of market top in place and W1-2 counts. the market is not topped yet, probably is far from both price and time. working on the weekend comprehensive report, layout the market roadmap both immediate and going forward for medium term. schedule to release tonight.
the biggest concern is the SuperCycle Trend Line, this line always is very violently volatile to both sides for decades. that's the main theme on the center stage, quietly occuring w/o people saying it, every major events for decades are surrounding or "created" for it. humble has posted it on the blog several times since Apr 26. 2010, probably is the first blog posted this SuperCycle trend line (spx, indu, compq). it's analyzed and included in tonight's weekend report.