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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

$spx upside target roadmap

initial short term upside target 1360,
then a series of swing of down and up toward 1396 ...
then another series of swing down and up to 1405,
then another series of swing down and up toward target $spx 1425.
then evaluate from there.

the main catalyst is all major indexes are currently staying above the Super Cycle Trend Line which originated from Y1938, that's the main and most important technical changed my overall stock market view (not fundamental view, fundamental still bad).
the past view of P2 counter trend rally against the 2008 financial storm was terminated after the SCTL was crossed.

the main view: the counter trend rally has turned into the deadly bubble formation since the bears' line in the sand of the SCTL has crossed.
when this bubble formation ends, it will end very badly, deadly, and quickly.
why wasting resources to fight the deadly bubble formation. the bubble will be bursted eventually (probably won't be too far in time) and ends very badly. but fighting it prematurely is costly.
the bubble characteristics are all there as identified by humble t/a, for one, $RUT is a huge bubble (+140% from the 3/2009 bottom). but why it so stubbonly won't end and so closely near the historical high? apparently, it's a bubble formation, not a counter trend rally.

Some indexes will never recover, but some will make new historical high.
Nasdaq bubble bursted during Y2000 ~ 2003, only recovered 1/3 even when $spx and $indu made new historical high in 2007.
here is the bubble formation for $rut to make new historical high while Nasdaq and financials can not even get close to 50% recover. the task for $rut to get to new high is not that difficult because it's so near now. no reason this huge $rut bubble formation can not be completed with a new historical high, otherwise $rut is not qualified as a huge bubble.

it's trader's heaven on trading both long an short.

if Nikkei can rally under this situation, what will happen to U.S.?
Taiwan did rally 43% from the worst earthquake in history! can Japan?
humbly, there is nothing impossible in this world.