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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

mid day membership commodities special report; and market updates summary

May 5 morning: updated code blue micro vs. macro and expectation of roadmap.
i know four code blue pattern occured in the past. three at U.S., one at Japan.

May 5: all charts and comments are yesterday May 4's.
for current live update for private membership: contact me.

SLV, AGQ, GLD, COPPER, USO; for their associated Silver, Gold, Copper, Oil commodities. It's "all the same market".

original post on Apr 28, 2011:

original post on Apr 29, 2011:

PS. will post on humble public blog some of them tonight or tomorrow. for immediate need, contact me.

May 4 (yesterday) market updates (exclude charts and market close report):
20 private membership intraday updates for Wed. May 4, 2011.

15:16 pm: since the beginning of Apr, $rut is trading between the green upper pitch fork channel. currently it found the support at the mid line (also as those 3 supports upated earlier), it's critical support.
$rut needs to break below the mid line for further downside confirmation toward the lower green line.
if consistant moving higher above the mid green line, it's not impossible for it to move to a new high at the upper line. The lower Ichimoku chart shows this potential of ending triangle diagonal with wave 5. i am holding through my $rut short even if it would make to a new high as a final move. currently i do not think this alternate would come through as i review the big picture and other indexes.

14:46 pm: $spx short term resistance is around mid Keltner channel (upper chart), currently is at 1353, but it's trending down.

14:35 pm: both $spx and $rut are slightly above the top line of the red channel.
could be a sign of red wave 1 finished, and is on wave 2 up retrace. often wave 2 retrace 61.8% of wave 1 down. just a initial sign of potential, not certain about this elliott wave count yet. further review needed.

14:21 pm: $spx bounced off the low of the red channel at 38.2% retrace from the up leg since Apr 18 low.
the next support is around 1337 (blue line) ~ 1339's (89 period moving average rose to 1339).

13:44 pm: as updated and expected in the previous update, $rut bounced up from the green pitch fork and code blue support, also the low of the red channel. now is near the high of the red channel resistance.

12:39 am: $rut is right at the vicinity of the green pitch fork and code blue supports.
some aggressive traders might want to trade on it with three days' very sharp sell off. i have higher tolerance and will hold through at least the medium term swing even if it would bounce higher from here.

12:28 pm ET: May 4, 2011 mid day commoditie​sspecial report
I believe following commodities already topped at their technical resistances as analyzed on their corresponding charts: SLV, AGQ, GLD, COPPER, USO; for their associated Silver, Gold, Copper, Oil commodities. It's "all the same market".

11:57 am: $rut is trading in the sharp red channel, majority of the gain since 4/18 bottom is gone in just a little more than two days' trading.
next support of the green pitch fork line is near, then the brown Fibo fan line.
lower code blue is not far away.
$rut might bounce up from above supports. agressive short term traders might trade on those, but i am for bigger medium term swing at least, and won't cover my $rut short at the support even if it would bounce higher.
"humble ST/MT buy/sell signal" is in confirmed sell signal, and have much to go down.

11:19 am: $spx is trading within the red channel, initial support is around the blue and red line below.

10:54 am: $indu MT expanded flat - expanded flat is from Mr. Ralph N. Elliott's original writing, he called it as "Irregualr flat".
i see here as the big picture expanded flat, as a balance/symmetrical to .....

10:47 am: my own developed "humble ST/MT buy/sell signal" is on the confirmed sell signal, still have lots room to go down both ST and MT.
currently the blue curve just came off the top, have much room to go down.
in the future, at certain turning juncture, i will try to report the status of this signal for aggressive short term traders' reference.

10:31 am: $rut is having potential bearish three black crows. it's the first of 2011 or longer time period.
it's a high reliability medium term trend reversal signal.
last time i reported the opposite bullsih "three white soldiers" was around mid March $spx 1249 bottom. and was on $indu, $spx, $tran, and i mentioned large cap would outperform small cap.
here we have a potential bearish three black crows, potentially small cap would under-perform large cap.

10:23 am: $rut is trading in the red channel (reported yesterday), so far 61.8% of the gain since 4/18 is gone in just a little over two days' trading. i believe $rut can be viewed as a leading indicator for other indexes.

10:13 am: $rut short term support could be around the next lower green pitch fork or the next lower brown Fibo fan line. agressive short term traders might want to trade on it, but for myself, i am for medium term much lower price and not worry about the short term volatility.

10:06 am: $indu double nine waves (the same as year 1987) - not a forecast of a crash, just showing the extreme optimism and complacency with ST nine waves and MT nine waves on the recent strongest index.

09:51 am: $spx coming off the top expanded flat wave-B, MT wave C target should be much below 1294.
short term support is around 89 period moving average around 1337.

09:41 am: $spx is trading in the lower Keltner channel, a sign of weakness.

09:28 am ET: just use Fibo fan to show the top of the strongest index, not a forecast of a crash of any kind.