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Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Black Swan CRASH Feasibility Report - degree: 2008 Greater Crash and beyound

PS. Jul 25: stockcharts public list:
1). will post black swan analysis if stay at #1 spot voting at the end of 7/31.
2). will not keep analysis on the list if not #1 or #2 voting at the end of 7/31.
3). at current voting rate, it's on the way of #4 voting, and will not keep the analysis charts in Aug.
4). VOTE
5). DIA tested the black trend line and turned down.
6). $spx back tested the broken green trend channel and turned down.

text comments (less charts) of Jul 25 member market close update:
market gapped down, but found support at previous broke out inflection supports. $spx at the green horizontal line, $indu at the upper red Fibo fan line.
after pulled back most of the day toward the resistances. $spx back tested at the broken lower trend channel line, $indu at the black trend line resistance.

$spx potentiall is with the form of an expanding leading diagonal, roadmap is ...

both $spx, $rut, $indu are ...

also attacched last week introduced ... pattern tracking charts, but i am paying more attential to potential "black swan" much more bearish MT and LT developement.
structure of confluence of five shows $spx rejected at 1347 last Thursday with 5 resistances as shown on the chart. MACD has started to turning down.

fear factor is in the ...

my personal opinion about the debt limit circus is: either Republicans want a default and get one as Democrat senator said on today's new conference, or ended with a bad deal for Obama and get a downgrade of U.S. rating. both are bearish.

Saturday Jul 23: black swan crash feasibility and its roadmap. and its (in)validation points and risk management member weekend report issued.

i will post this study if i get to #1 spot on the stockcharts public list by end of Jul and at end of Jul. the sooner i get to, the sooner you see the free chart.

VOTE" daily and during the weekend on the above.

or you can join the membership for immediate release without delay.

structure of the confluence of five resistances right at $spx 1347:
three Fibo fan, two pitch forks.

PS. 7/24: hi Pelican, yes, it's 1347, a typo. these are just short term charts. much more important is the big picture and seeing what's coming on such an inflection time.
i see most bearish paid subscriptions (ewi ...) and blogs are more prone to looking for new 2011 high right from here or after a pull back.
nobody, yes nobody! is looking for a great crash could be equal or greater than the one during year 2008. Not to mention bulls, Barron's are looking for 5~8% market advance from here. so if it comes, it will be a black swan to most, if not all.

to me, black swan of degree 2008 or greater is high probability after i studied very hard on so many aspects and so many patterns.
if this prediction and view realized, could be the very worthy one of the year! so far, i see it's very likely, and don't see why not as i check my report again and again. it's a process, not a 1~2 days or 1~2 weeks event, takes time to proceed.

7/25 14:45 ET: Senator Schumer says "Republicans want a default"

didn't Democrats wanted a financial storm during 2008 after delaying voting against the tarp many times? and they did get the storm!