Blog Archive


Public blog posts only as education and entertainment. private membership market updates reflect my view and analysis of the market. The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and charts is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market comments do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor. And i absolutely discourage trading options.

Saturday, August 20, 2011

St. Louis FED Financial Stress Index - US is entering recession

while economists are confusing and disputing, the chart speaks for itself.

FOMC statement on Jun 22:
" the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, ... Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand..."

the more advance predicting model of humble black swan system reported the crash stress situation one month ago, and continue to project coming developement, and report to members.

St. Louis FED Financial Stress Index shows US is entering recession shade area, only a hair away, similar to 2008.
but also similar to summer 2010, which transitorily saved by QE2.
if solidly enter the shade area, it could mean US economic double dips, and $spx would move to approach Mar 2009 low of below 700.
watch this coming Friday' Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole.